Zero To Hero: Expiry Day Low Premium Trades

Published January 23, 2023
Zero To Hero: Expiry Day Low Premium Trades

What are the characteristics of this option strategy?

Zero to hero trades buy cheap, out-of-the-money options on the day of expiry and hope the underlying moves far enough to close them in the money. The name describes the payoff, not the odds: a contract bought for a few cents is worth nothing at the close unless the strike is breached, and worth several times its cost if it is. Because the trade is long premium, the loss is defined at the debit paid, but the most likely single outcome is losing all of it. Traders build the position from long options or from a debit spread such as a bull call spread. Selling naked options on expiry day is a different trade with unlimited loss and is not what this strategy describes.

Is this a bullish, bearish or neutral strategy?

The Zero To Hero Option Strategy is directional and can be pointed either way: calls or a bull call spread for a bullish view, puts or a bear put spread for a bearish one. What it is not is a neutral strategy. It needs a sharp move in the chosen direction within hours, and a neutral, range-bound tape is the environment in which it reliably loses the entire debit.

Is this a beginner or an advanced option strategy?

The mechanics are simple enough for a beginner to execute, which is exactly why the trade is popular and exactly why it is misused. Judging when a same-day move is plausible, and sizing a position whose base case is a total loss, is advanced work. Treat it as speculation rather than a starter strategy, and keep the amount at risk to something the trader would be willing to lose outright.

In what situation will I use this strategy?

The Zero To Hero Option Strategy needs a sharp, fast move in the underlying on the day of expiry. In a stable, range-bound market the cheap out-of-the-money options it buys simply expire worthless, so a quiet market is the worst environment for it, not the best. The realistic use is a small speculative position around a known same-day catalyst. It is a poor hedge, because the protection disappears at the closing bell.

Where does this strategy typically fall in the range of risk-reward and probability of profit?

The Zero To Hero Option Strategy sits at the far end of the range: a large potential reward against a small defined risk, paired with a low probability of profit. Buying an out-of-the-money option with hours left to run means the market is pricing a small chance the strike is breached, and that price is roughly the odds. A winning trade can return several times the debit, but most trades expire worthless and lose 100% of what was paid. Any description of this as a high-probability trade is wrong, and the defined risk applies only to the debit paid, not to the size of the position a trader stacks up over many attempts.

How is this strategy affected by the greeks?

The Zero To Hero Option Strategy is dominated by Gamma and Theta, with Delta swinging violently as a result. Because the trade is placed on the day of expiry, gamma and theta are at their most extreme: delta can swing from near zero to near one on a small move in the underlying, and time decay destroys the remaining premium within hours. Vega is the one greek whose effect is small this close to expiration.

In what volatility regime (i.e VIX level) would this strategy be optimal?

The Zero To Hero Option Strategy needs realised movement, so a quiet market with the VIX in the low teens is the worst backdrop: the options are cheap because nothing is expected to happen, and usually nothing does. Higher volatility raises the chance of the move the trade requires, but it also raises the premium, so the strike sits further away for the same money. Neither regime offers an edge. The practical trigger is a scheduled catalyst on the expiry date, such as an economic release or an earnings reaction, rather than a particular VIX level.

How do I adjust this strategy when the trade goes against me? And how easy or difficult is this strategy to adjust?

There is almost nothing to adjust. With hours until expiration there is no time to roll to a later date without turning it into an entirely different trade, and a losing contract that has decayed to a few cents cannot be sold for anything meaningful. The two realistic choices are to close for whatever the bid offers and recover part of the debit, or to let it expire and accept the full loss. This is the main practical reason to size the position as money the trader is prepared to write off: the usual repair tools do not apply.

Where does this strategy typically fall in the range of commissions and fees?

The premium outlay is small by design, which makes commissions and fees unusually significant here. A contract bought for $0.20 costs $20, so a per-contract fee of $0.65 on each of two legs is already several percent of the trade, and a debit spread doubles the leg count. Add the bid-ask spread, which on cheap expiry-day options is often a large fraction of the price itself, and the friction can be the difference between a marginal winner and a loser. Traders who repeat the trade daily should count these costs across the whole series, not one ticket.

Is this a good option income strategy?

No. Buying low-priced options on the day of expiry is a low-probability, lottery-ticket trade whose most likely single outcome is that the option expires worthless and the entire premium is lost. It pays premium rather than collecting it, so it is not an income strategy, and it should be sized as speculation with money the trader can afford to lose.

How do I know when to exit this strategy?

Decide the exit before the trade is placed, because there is no time to deliberate once expiration is hours away. If the move arrives and the option goes in the money, take the profit rather than holding for the close; gamma is at its highest and a gain can be given back in minutes. If the move has not arrived by mid-session, the remaining premium decays quickly and the realistic choice is to close for salvage value or write the debit off. Holding an out-of-the-money contract into the final minutes hoping for a reversal is where most of the losses come from. An in-the-money long option left to expire is also exercised automatically at most brokers, which can deliver an unwanted stock position, so close it rather than letting it settle by accident.

How will market makers respond to this trade being opened?

A small expiry-day order is ordinary flow. The market maker takes the other side and hedges in the underlying, adjusting that hedge as gamma moves through the day. Their behaviour is not predictable from the retail side and should not form part of the trade plan. What does affect the trader directly is pricing: near-worthless contracts carry wide quotes, so use limit orders and treat the mid price as a hope rather than an expectation.

What is an example (with calculations) of this strategy?

A typical Zero To Hero Option Strategy trade is a bull call spread opened on the morning of expiration. Assume the underlying is trading at $100 and the trader expects an upside move on the day:

-Buy 1 call, strike 101, expiring today, premium $0.35 ($35)
-Sell 1 call, strike 102, expiring today, premium $0.15 ($15)

The net debit is 0.35 - 0.15 = $0.20 per share, or $20 for the contract, and that debit is the maximum loss. Maximum profit is the width of the spread less the debit: (102 - 101) - 0.20 = $0.80 per share, or $80. Breakeven at the close is 101 + 0.20 = $101.20, so the underlying has to rise 1.2% within the session merely to break even, and 2% to reach the full $80.

The reward is four times the risk, which is what makes the trade attractive on paper. The other side of that ratio is the probability. If the underlying finishes anywhere at or below $101, both calls expire worthless and the entire $20 is lost, and that is the single most likely outcome for a spread priced this far out of the money with hours to run. Commissions on two legs and the bid-ask spread come out of the same $20. More information about a Bull Call Spread Trade can be found in this link.

Using the MarketXLS Option Premium Calculator, you can easily calculate the potential reward and risk of a given trade. This can help traders determine if a trade is a worthwhile endeavor and decide if they should open or close their positions accordingly.

MarketXLS is a comprehensive stock market analysis, research and portfolio analysis software designed for all levels of investors. With MarketXLS, investors have access to hundreds of data sources and powerful tools such as real-time stock quotes, live charts, financial news, option strategies, and much more. With these tools, investors can make better-informed decisions and save both time and money.

Here are some templates that you can use to create your own models

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